How Models Fail
A Critical Look at the History of Computer Simulations of the Evolution of Cooperation

Eckhart Arnold

1 Introduction
2 The empirical failure of simulations of the evolution of cooperation
3 Justificatory narratives
4 Bad excuses for bad methods and why they are wrong
5 History repeats itself: Comparison with similar criticisms of naturalistic or scientistic approaches
Bibliography

Bibliography

  1. (Arnold:2006) Arnold, Eckhart. 2006. The Dark Side of the Force. When computer simulations lead us astray and model think narrows our imagination. (Pre conference draft for the Models and Simulations Conference, Paris, June 12-14.). In Homepage Eckhart Arnold, ed. Eckhart Arnold. www.eckhartarnold.de/papers/2006_simulations/Simulations_preconference.html
  2. (Arnold:2008) Arnold, Eckhart. 2008. Explaining Altruism. A Simulation-Based Approach and its Limits. Heusenstamm: ontos Verlag.
  3. (Arnold:2013b) Arnold, Eckhart. 2013. “Simulation Models of the Evolution of Cooperation as Proofs of Logical Possibilities. How Useful Are They?” Etica & Politica / Ethics & Politics XV(2):101-138.
  4. (Arnold:2014b) Arnold, Eckhart. 2014. “What's wrong with Social Simulations?” The Monist 97(3):361-379.
  5. (Ashworth:1980) Ashworth, Tony. 1980. Trench Warfare 1914-1918. The Live and Let Live System. MacMillan Press Ltd.
  6. (Axelrod:1984) Axelrod, Robert. 1984. The Evolution of Cooperation. Basic Books.
  7. (Binmore:1994) Binmore, Ken. 1994. Game Theory and the Social Contract I. Playing Fair. Fourth printing (2000) ed. Cambridge, Massachusetts / London, England: MIT Press.
  8. (Binmore:1998) Binmore, Ken. 1998. Game Theory and the Social Contract II. Just Playing. Cambridge, Massachusetts / London, England: MIT Press.
  9. (Dugatkin:1997) Dugatkin, Lee Alan. 1997. Cooperation among Animals. Oxford University Press.
  10. (Dugatkin:1998a) Dugatkin, Lee Alan. 1998. Game Theory and Cooperation. In Game Theory and Animal Behavior. Oxford University Press chapter 3, pp. 38-63.
  11. (Dugatkin:1998) Dugatkin, Lee Alan and Hudson Kern Reeve. 1998. Game Theory and Animal Behavior. Oxford University Press.
  12. (Epstein:2008) Epstein, Joshua M. 2008. “Why Model?”. Based on the author's 2008 Bastille Day keynote address to the Second World Congress on Social Simulation, George Mason University, and earlier addresses at the Institute of Medicine, the University of Michigan, and the Santa Fe Institute. www.santafe.edu/research/publications/workingpapers/08-09-040.pdf
  13. (Green/Shapiro:1994) Green, Donald P. and Ian Shapiro. 1994. Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory. A Critique of Applications in Political Science. New Haven and London: Yale University Press.
  14. (Hammerstein:2003) Hammerstein, Peter. 2003. Why Is Reciprocity So Rare in Social Animals? A Protestant Appeal. In Genetic and Cultural Evolution, ed. Peter Hammerstein. Cambridge, Massachusetts / London, England: MIT Press in cooperation with Dahlem University Press chapter 5, pp. 83-94.
  15. (Heath et al.:2009) Heath, Brian, Raymond Hill and Frank Ciarallo. 2009. “A Survey of Agent-Based Modeling Practices (January 1998 to July 2008).” Journal of Artifical Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS) 12(4):9. jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/12/4/9.html
  16. (Hoffmann:2000) Hoffmann, Robert. 2000. “Twenty Years on: The Evolution of Cooperation Revisited.” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation Volume 3, No. 2. jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/3/2/forum/1.html
  17. (Milinski:1987) Milinski, Manfred. 1987. “TIT FOR TAT in sticklebacks and the evolution of cooperation.” nature 325, January:433-435.
  18. (Milinski/Parker:1997) Milinski, Manfred and Geoffrey A. Parker. 1997. “Cooperation under predation risk: a data-based ESS analysis.” Proceedings of the Royal Society 264:1239-1247.
  19. (Moses/Knutsen:2012) Moses, Jonthon W. and Torbjørn L. Knutsen. 2012. Ways of Knowing. Competing Methodologies in Social and Political Research. 2nd (first edition 2007) ed. London: palgrave macmillen.
  20. (Osborne:2004) Osborne, Martin J. 2004. An Introduction to Game Theory. Oxford University Press.
  21. (Parsons:1949) Parsons, Talcott. 1949. The Structure of Social Action. first published: 1937 ed. Glencoe: Free Press.
  22. (Popper:1934) Popper, Karl R. 1971. Logik der Forschung. Erstauflage: 1934 ed. Tübingen: Mohr.
  23. (Rangoni:2013) Rangoni, Ruggero. 2013. “Heterogeneous Strategy Learning in the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma.” Etica & Politica / Ethics & Politics XV(2):42-57.
  24. (Rendell et al.:2010b) Rendell, Luke, R. Boyd, D. Cownden, M. Enquist, K. Eriksson, M.W. Feldman, L. Fogarty, S. Ghirlanda, T. Lillicrap and Kevin N. Laland. 2010 a. “Supporting Online Material for: Why Copy Others? Insights from the Social Learning Strategies Tournament.” Science 328:2-53. www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/328/5975/208/DC1
  25. (Rendell et al.:2010a) Rendell, Luke, R. Boyd, D. Cownden, M. Enquist, K. Eriksson, M.W. Feldman, L. Fogarty, S. Ghirlanda, T. Lillicrap and Kevin N. Laland. 2010 b. “Why Copy Others? Insights from the Social Learning Strategies Tournament.” Science 328:208-213. www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/328/5975/208
  26. (Schurz:2011) Schurz, Gerhard. 2011. Evolution in Natur und Kultur. Heidelberg: Spektrum Akademischer Verlag.
  27. (Schuessler:1990) Schüßler, Rudolf. 1997. Kooperation unter Egoisten: Vier Dilemmata. 2nd (first:1990) ed. München: R. Oldenbourg Verlag.
  28. (Trivers:1971) Trivers, Robert L. 1971. “The Evolution of Reciprocal Altruism.” The Quarterly Review of Biology 46:35-57.
  29. (Zacharias:2013) Zacharias, Sebastian. 2013. The DarDarwin Revolution as a knowledge reorganisation. A historical-epistemological analysis and a reception analysis based on a novel model of scientific theories PhD thesis Max-Planck-Institute for the History of Science Berlin: .
  30. (Zollman:2009) Zollman, Kevin. 2009. “Review of Eckhart Arnold, Explaining Altruism: A Simulation-Based Approach and its Limits.” Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews . ndpr.nd.edu/news/23961-explaining-altruism-a-simulation-based-approach-and-its-limits/
  31. (Durkheim:1997) Émile Durkheim. 1977. Über die Teilung der sozialen Arbeit. Frankfurt am Main: suhrkamp.

t g+ f @